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    Production Economics and Output Outlook

    Hydrogen production across South America in 2026 is estimated at approximately 2.0 to 2.5 million tonnes, positioning the region as a moderate-scale but structurally diverse hydrogen producer within the global landscape. Production is concentrated in refining, fertiliser and chemical manufacturing systems, with output largely consumed internally rather than traded as a standalone commodity.

    Production volumes are governed by installed reforming capacity, refinery and fertiliser plant utilisation rates, electricity availability and infrastructure integration. Countries with large refining and fertiliser bases account for the majority of output, while electricity-driven hydrogen production is integrated selectively where power system conditions support stable utilisation.

    From a production-cost perspective, hydrogen economics across South America are influenced by natural gas availability, electricity pricing, capital intensity, plant efficiency and utilisation discipline. Regions with domestic gas supply or competitive power generation exhibit more stable production economics. Capacity evolution reflects industrial demand continuity and infrastructure readiness rather than hydrogen price volatility.

    Key Questions Answered

    • How does industrial structure influence hydrogen output levels?
    • How do gas and power costs shape production economics?
    • How do utilisation rates stabilise regional output?
    • How does infrastructure readiness affect capacity planning?

    Hydrogen Output Types and Allocation Logic

    Output Classification

    • Industrial hydrogen
    • Refining and hydrotreating
    • Chemical manufacturing
    • Fertiliser production
    • Hydrogen for metals and materials
      • Steel and reduction processes
      • Industrial heat
    • Energy and mobility hydrogen
      • Pilotscale transport
      • Power system demonstrations
    • Hydrogen derivatives
      • Ammonia
      • Synthetic intermediates

    Industrial hydrogen dominates allocation across South America due to continuous demand from refineries and fertiliser plants. These applications prioritise high reliability, consistent purity and uninterrupted supply, shaping plant configuration and redundancy planning.

    Hydrogen derivatives, particularly ammonia, stabilise demand by embedding hydrogen into fertiliser and export-oriented value chains. Energy and mobility uses remain secondary and do not define baseload production capacity.

    Key Questions Answered

    • How do industrial users define hydrogen quality requirements?
    • How does ammonia production influence capacity sizing?
    • How do derivatives affect storage and logistics needs?
    • How does allocation discipline support operational stability?

    Production Pathways and Technology Configuration

    Process Structure

    • Steam methane reforming (SMR)
      • Primary production route
      • Integrated with refineries and fertiliser plants
      • Sensitive to gas pricing
    • Autothermal reforming (ATR)
      • Efficiencyfocused systems
      • Carbonmanagementcompatible
      • Limited deployment
    • Electrolysisbased hydrogen
      • Gridconnected and renewablelinked systems
      • Modular and utilityscale installations
      • Electricitydriven economics

    SMR underpins the majority of hydrogen production across South America due to its scalability and integration with existing industrial infrastructure. ATR is selectively relevant where efficiency improvements align with emissions management strategies.

    Electrolysis-based hydrogen is deployed where electricity access, grid stability and utilisation economics support sustained operation. From a production perspective, electrolysis complements reforming-based output rather than displacing it.

    Key Questions Answered

    • How do production routes compare in cost stability and efficiency?
    • How does feedstock availability affect output reliability?
    • How do electricity prices shape electrolyser utilisation?
    • How do producers manage hybrid production systems?

    Hydrogen Use Distribution Across Sectors

    End-use Breakdown

    • Refining and petrochemicals
      • Fuel upgrading
      • Chemical synthesis
    • Fertilisers and chemicals
      • Ammonia
      • Nitrogenbased products
    • Steel and materials
      • Reduction processes
      • Industrial heat
    • Energy and mobility
      • Demonstration transport
      • Power system integration

    Refining and fertiliser applications establish the baseload for hydrogen production due to continuous demand and strategic importance. Steel and energy uses influence future allocation but do not yet define core capacity requirements.

    From a production standpoint, close integration between hydrogen generation and consumption supports predictable operating regimes and high utilisation.

    Key Questions Answered

    • How do fertiliser cycles influence hydrogen scheduling?
    • How does refining demand stabilise production?
    • How do emerging steel uses affect flexibility?
    • How do pilot energy uses shape future planning?

    Regional Anchoring of Hydrogen Production

    Brazil

    The largest hydrogen producer in the region, anchored by extensive refining, petrochemical and fertiliser infrastructure in Brazil.

    Argentina

    Hydrogen production linked to refining and fertiliser manufacturing, supported by domestic gas availability in Argentina.

    Chile

    Smaller current production volumes, with hydrogen generated for industrial use and emerging electricity-linked systems in Chile.

    Colombia and Peru

    Hydrogen production associated with refining and fertiliser assets, serving domestic industrial demand.

    Key Questions Answered

    • How does industrial clustering drive production concentration?
    • How does gas availability influence regional competitiveness?
    • How do port and pipeline access affect logistics?
    • How do regulatory frameworks influence site selection?

    Supply Chain Structure, Cost Drivers and Trade Exposure

    South America’s hydrogen supply chain begins with natural gas procurement and electricity generation, followed by hydrogen production, compression, limited storage and direct industrial consumption or conversion into ammonia. Hydrogen transport remains limited due to co-location of production and use.

    Cost drivers are dominated by gas pricing, electricity costs, capital efficiency and utilisation rates. Storage and logistics costs remain secondary, while ammonia conversion provides limited export exposure.

    Pricing formation reflects energy input markets and long-term industrial contracts rather than hydrogen spot markets.

    Key Questions Answered

    • How do gas and power prices influence hydrogen competitiveness?
    • How do utilisation rates affect unit production costs?
    • How do storage and conversion choices affect resilience?
    • How do producers benchmark domestic hydrogen economics?

    Production Ecosystem and Strategic Direction

    South America’s hydrogen production ecosystem includes refiners, fertiliser producers, chemical manufacturers, industrial gas suppliers, utilities and policymakers. The ecosystem is characterised by industrial integration, feedstock diversity and uneven infrastructure maturity.

    Strategic priorities include securing feedstock supply, optimising reforming assets, selectively integrating electrolysis, improving efficiency and aligning hydrogen production with fertiliser security and industrial development objectives.

    Deeper Questions Decision Makers Should Ask

    • How secure is longterm gas and power availability?
    • How resilient are production assets to price volatility?
    • How scalable is electrolysis under grid constraints?
    • How bankable are longterm industrial offtake agreements?
    • How aligned are hydrogen projects with national industrial policies?
    • How quickly can efficiency gains be realised?
    • How robust are safety and monitoring systems?
    • How integrated is hydrogen within regional industrial strategies?

    Bibliography

    • International Fertilizer Association (IFA). (2024). Ammonia, hydrogen and fertiliser value chains in South America.
    • BP Statistical Review of World Energy - Hydrogen Annex. (2024). Hydrogen production pathways and regional energy inputs.
    • Latin American Energy Organization (OLADE). (2024). Hydrogen and industrial energy systems in South America.
    • World Bank. (2024). Hydrogen, ammonia and industrial competitiveness in emerging economies.

    Frequently Asked Questions

    What is the estimated hydrogen production volume in South America in 2026?

    Hydrogen production across South America in 2026 is estimated at approximately 2.0 to 2.5 million tonnes, driven primarily by refining, fertiliser and chemical manufacturing demand.

    What factors most strongly influence hydrogen production costs in South America?

    Production costs are shaped by natural gas availability, electricity pricing, plant efficiency, capital recovery requirements and utilisation rates, with significant variation by country.

    Which hydrogen production technologies dominate in South America?

    Hydrogen output is dominated by steam methane reforming (SMR), complemented by limited autothermal reforming (ATR) and a growing contribution from electrolysis-based hydrogen in selected markets.

    How important is ammonia to hydrogen production in South America?

    Ammonia plays a key role by embedding hydrogen into fertiliser production and enabling limited export-oriented supply chains.

    What constrains hydrogen capacity expansion in South America?

    Constraints include infrastructure gaps, capital intensity, grid reliability, gas supply variability and regulatory complexity across markets.

    Key Questions Answered in the Report

    Operations and Continuity

    • How predictable is hydrogen output under gas and power variability?
    • How stable is plant uptime across reforming and electrolysis systems?
    • How much buffer storage supports continuity?
    • How do fertiliser and refinery cycles affect production planning?
    • How are operational risks managed during power disruptions?
    • How does site location affect redundancy planning?
    • How are safety systems managed across industrial zones?
    • How do logistics constraints affect flexibility?

    Feedstock and Energy Procurement

    • How are domestic and imported gas supplies balanced?
    • How do producers hedge exposure to energy price volatility?
    • How is electricity sourcing optimised for electrolysis?
    • How are carbon considerations incorporated into feedstock decisions?
    • How does procurement differ by country?
    • How are compliance requirements handled?
    • How do longterm contracts support capital recovery?
    • How does supplier diversification reduce risk?

    Production Technology and Assets

    • Which upgrades deliver the greatest efficiency improvements?
    • How do producers balance SMR optimisation and electrolysis integration?
    • How are electrolysers deployed under grid constraints?
    • How do digital systems improve output stability?
    • How are water and thermal systems optimised?
    • How do safety systems evolve with higher throughput?
    • How are new technologies validated at scale?
    • How do materials improvements extend asset life?

    Buyers and Allocation

    • Which sectors define baseload hydrogen demand?
    • How do fertiliser producers influence production planning?
    • How are allocation priorities set during constraints?
    • How do buyers structure longterm offtake agreements?
    • How does proximity influence buyer selection?
    • How do buyers balance reliability and cost?
    • How are sustainability attributes verified?
    • How do users manage supply risk?

    Commercial and Contract Structure

    • What benchmarks guide hydrogen pricing in South America?
    • How frequently are prices adjusted for gas and power inputs?
    • How do longterm contracts support investment recovery?
    • How do buyers compare hydrogen with alternative feedstocks?
    • What contract duration ensures asset viability?
    • How are disputes managed across jurisdictions?
    • What incentives influence production economics?
    • How do contracts differ by sector?

    Plant Location and Infrastructure

    • Which regions maintain the most reliable gas and power access?
    • What investment levels define viable capacity expansion?
    • How do permitting and zoning affect site selection?
    • How do grid constraints affect electrolyser deployment?
    • How do plants manage regulatory audits?
    • How does workforce readiness affect operations?
    • How suitable are ports for ammonia handling?
    • How is infrastructure resilience incorporated into planning?

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    South America Hydrogen Production Capacity and Growth Outlook