Will the growth of bulk throughput across the APEJ region stagnate or reach a spike in the next 10 years?
Our comprehensive study of the global bulk terminals market indicates that the APEJ region is likely to dominate the global market in terms of revenue and bulk throughput during the period of our assessment (2016 – 2026). This could very well contribute to the growth of the overall global bulk terminals market performance in terms of volume, which is slated to register a CAGR of 3.2% in the next 10 years. If we look at the global bulk terminals market volume throughput, our research indicates a possible growth with throughput touching over 20,000 million tonnes by the end of 2026 from an estimated 15,000+ million tonnes by the end of 2016 – a good increase of around 1.4X between 2015 and 2026. Of this, the global bulk terminals market volume throughput share of the APEJ region is projected to be the highest – reaching a market volume share of over 40% by the end of 2016 and growing to more than 45% by the end of the forecast period (end of 2026). APEJ held a high volume share in 2014 so this seems like a probable trend we are witnessing here. Question is, will the APEJ bulk terminals market continue to hold its position of dominance in the global bulk terminals market?
Several key factors drive revenue and consumption growth of the APEJ bulk terminals market
When we dissected the APEJ bulk terminals market performance in terms of bulk terminals volume throughput and revenue, we found that the primary driver boosting the growth of the APEJ bulk terminals market was the steady pace of economic growth along with an increase in the industrial output of the region. We believe these are the key factors that will drive the growth of bulk throughput across the APEJ region over the next 10 years.
If we are to analyse the impact of the APEJ regional market on the global bulk terminals market, several factors come into play.
First off, the global bulk terminals market is highly dependent on global trade of bulk commodities and regional trade policies. Trade policies in the APEJ region are very conducive to the growth of the global bulk terminals market.
Secondly, the global bulk terminals market is impacted by a rise in the worldwide population, increase in regional GDP, and the facilitation of beneficial trade agreements between different countries – again, factors predominantly witnessed in the APEJ region.
Another most important contributing factor is a growing consumption of bulk commodities and affordability in emerging economies (China and India for instance), which contributes to escalating the global bulk terminals business.
All these factors point to an exponential growth of the APEJ bulk terminals market in the coming decade. However, declining coal consumption and trade reforms in China in the next 10 years is likely to restrict the growth of the APEJ bulk terminals market during the projected period. We also feel that an overcapacity in the APEJ shipping industry might influence the global bulk terminals market – to what extent this impact will hit the market remains to be seen.
Countries within APEJ dominating the global bulk terminals market
China, Australia, and India are the top countries within the APEJ region that are likely to hold a majority share of the global bulk terminals market. Our research indicates a collective market share of a little over 80% between these three countries by the end of 2026. Of these three countries, China will remain the dominant market for bulk terminals on the basis of volume throughput of ports during the forecast period, contributing more than 48% market share in terms of volume throughput in the APEJ region and is expected to witness a CAGR of 3.8% in the next decade. After China, Australia and India together contribute more than 30% in bulk market volume throughput.
APEJ bulk terminals market forecast
The APEJ bulk market volume throughput was pegged at more than 6400 million tons in 2015 and is expected to register a CAGR of 3.8% to reach almost 9700 million tonnes by the end of 2026. Bulk market volume throughput in the APEJ regional market is estimated to increase by 0.7X in 2026 as compared to that in 2016.
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